Four Weeks Left....

With three rounds and four weeks left in the NFL playoffs, it has become apparent that all favorites and guarantees are out the window.  However, the Wild Card round may be all we need to figure this thing out. 

Here's what we learned last week:

1.  Tebow continues to prove that pressure helps him, not hurts him.  (Sidenote: stacking the box also helped him).  The Steelers had the best gameplan available that game, and it failed.  Not for a lack of trying, not for a lack of preperation, and not for a lack of talent.  Yes, a few key guys were missing, such as Clark and an unhealthy Woodley.  That's not the point.  The point is that the Steelers decided as of play 1 that only one player will beat them this game, and that was Tim Tebow.  They loaded the box and tried to shut down the run.  While they could have done better agasint the run, they still did well enough that the game was in Tebow's hands.  The result?  Tebow had the best professional game of his career.  Even after Eric Decker got murdered sometime in the third quarter, Tebow still had Demaryius Thomas and a great slot WR in Eddie Royal.  In fact, his game was nothing more than Rothelisberger-esque in his rookie year.  Not perfect, but clutch.  He made plays when necessary, whether it was breaking sacks that any QB should have suffered or throwing balls that had no chance of being picked.  Then, when all signs pointed towards a Steelers comeback, Tebow threw a single pass under pressure to send home a stunned and disappointed Steelers team.  Just like Ben, Tebow's ceiling this playoffs as a rookie is the AFC championship game.  In order to get there, he will have to beat the Pat's outstanding offense as well as their piss poor fucking abortion of a defense.  While I don't see that happening, even if it does it will only get worse moving on.  The Broncos don't stand a chance on the road against the Ravens/Texans.  Both teams are a terrible match-ups for Tebow, but we'll see what happens this weekend. 

2.  The Saints are the favorite to win the superbowl.  Really, there are only two teams that people can debate this on, and that is the Pats and of course the Packers.  What do both the Packers and Patriots have in common?  They both have the first and second worse defense in the league, respectively.  While A-Rod and Brady are both having career years, it will be a miracle if Brees doesn't win the MVP.  He shattered records, did it with wayyyy less talent then Green Bay, and proved to be the best home team ATS and in general all year.  They are as hot as the Packers were last year at this time, and these days it's all about who can put together the biggest run.  In fact, if I were a betting man, which I am actually (unless Feds are reading this, then just kidding) I would guarantee the following:  If the Saints can get past the 49ers this week on the road, they will win the superbowl.  That's a fact.  The 49ers have a solid defense and the best that NO will see for the rest of the playoffs unless somehow the Ravens make it to the superbowl.  A win in SF will give the confidence and energy to destroy GB after that first game of the year, which was exremely close if you remember.  Not to mention, I think Brees wants some payback after finding out Rodgers hadn't practiced with his team once during the lockout and then went on to brag about it after the win. 

3. Green Bay will not repeat.  As a Steelers fan, I promise I'm not being a hater.  I just don't see how GB plans to not only get back to but also win the Superbowl.  They play the Giants this week, which is also one of the hottest teams in the league right now.  Not to mention, they have the best front four in the league by far, with Det being a distant second.  They have a banged up but solid secondary.  Also, they have a knack for spoiling destiny a la Pats 2007.  I know the Chiefs pulled off some bullshit in week 16, but GB is really undefeated for all intensive purposes.  Say they beat the Giants, then they play an either awesome SF defense or a NO offense that is the only one to rival their own in scoring ability.  Finally, they will face the Pats or Ravens in the superbowl, both of which have the D or O to give them a hell of a time.  GB has a tough road, and unlike last year, they are the favorites and have been from Day 1.  As a Steelers fan, I have seen my team cruise through the playoffs as the 6 seed that no one takes quite serious until there's 2 min left in the conference championship game and your team is up by 7 or 10.  Then you realize there's only one game left and anything can happen.  As soon as you win, next year is a different story.  People WANT GB.  In fact, beating Green Bay is a great consolation prize if you don't win the superbowl.

Here are my picks for the weekend, and I hope you enjoy the games as well as the money you will make from these picks.  Enjoy.

Saints (-4) OVER the 49ers

Pats (-13.5) OVER the Broncos

Texans (+7.5) OVER the Ravens

Giants (+7.5) OVER the Packers

If you don't believe my track record, my fictional bookie currently owes me a fictional $600.  So, I know what I'm doing.